Bets by Daniel Le March 08, 2020 778

Betting the Odds: How the Meta Has Shifted the Odds

Just as with any great competitive esport title, the game is constantly evolving and changing in ways that may or may not be advantageous for some people in the competitive scene. One of the ways that developers attempt to keep the game fresh and entertaining for those watching and playing is through the constant usage of patches and adjustments to characters, items, and interactions between champions. 

These patches hold a large influence over the current state of the game, as well as the overall meta for the professional scene. As such, the odds tend to follow where the game flows. In the current scope of Season 10 of League of Legends, this could not be more true. League of Legends has seen some of the most incredible swings in meta shifts, from the infamous tank meta, to the days of rampant jungle control, the current season has seen a drastic shift in priority. Here is how this will affect the betting odds, and what to expect moving forward.

Past Versus Present

In the past metas, games were seen as one of two things: Quick and relentless, or a complete clown fiesta. In the professional scene, it was no different. In seasons 5 and 6, the meta stagnated around singular lane dominance, with players like Faker and Bjergsen completely shutting out the competition.

However, in more recent seasons of play, we’ve seen a more team-focussed shift from those at Riot Games. The patches have pushed more for team oriented gameplay, with tower plates being made harder to gather on your own, as well as tanks being buffed. 

Items were also buffed to accommodate the tank meta, as well as giving beefier junglers a chance to make some plays. In season 10, Riot granted the Cinder component a huge buff, allowing tanks to be able to stack on extra damage with a crowd control ability.

How this Impacts Pro Play

The impact of the current meta is fairly easy to see. Across the board, odds are shifted in favor of the new meta, which favors team control, and macro-game knowledge. These affected odds can be seen currently within the League of Legends professional scene.

Total Kills and Deaths

The most basic stat to bet on, kills and death are a staple in just about any competitive game. However, with the current meta revolving around objective play, most teams are too scared or passive when it comes to attempting to get kills. Not only that, when one team starts to get a lead, the enemies tend to shut down and try not to make a mistake. This leads to fairly stale gameplay, and very few deaths on the map.

Odds that are Affected:

  • Total Game Kill Odds
  • Team Kill Odds
  • Even/Odd Kills Odds
  • Total Set Kills

Only Extreme Times

Another set of odds that has been influenced by the current meta is game time. In the past 2 seasons, game times have drastically been reduced down to half of what it used to be. We were able to see games that went on for as long as 45 minutes in the past. Now, the average game time can run anywhere between 25 to 35 minutes. 

This change has come due to the meta shifting, as well as team play being the focus. A game can now be determined solely on the fact that one side may get an early advantage. As soon as that advantage is taken, many pro teams tend to close up and play extremely passive, as they do not wish to give up any more of a lead. Due to this, the game tends to slowly snowball in favor of the advantaged team early on. 

On the flip side, games can be at such a stalemate that the game doesn’t ever seem to end. During these ones, we tend to see game times upwards of 45 to 50 minute games. This happens when both teams hit a wall of sorts, and cannot find an opening to exert any pressure. Following this, the games tend to ride the waves all the way until barons and elder dragons take precedence, creating an extremely slow, but intense, game.

Odds That are Affected:

  • Total Game Time Odds
  • Average Game Time Odds
  • Estimated Game Time Odds

Global Odds

However, the one thing that has changed the most in terms of betting odds would be the global objectives. Early dragon takes, as well as towers and rift heralds, have become all the more prominent to take early. With the advent of tower plates being changed to make it more accessible for melee champions, the push for macro-oriented gameplay brings about an excessive amount of global objectives being taken. First tower will almost always be taken around 12 to 13 minutes, and the first dragon will almost always be taken by the faster jungler, or the jungler that has the quickest clearing power. 

Affected Odds:

  • First Dragon Take Odds
  • First Rift Herald Take Odds
  • First Tower Take Odds

Note of Warning

Please keep in mind that these odds will also fluctuate from team to team. Most notably, these situations can also change from region to region.

In the LCS and LEC, the teams tend to be more stagnant and follow this slow, methodical method of play. They tend to hide, and hope to not make errors, making their odds align with these changes with the meta.

However, in the eastern regions, such as the LCK and LPL, fast-paced games run rampant, with teams using their matches as aggressive testing grounds. As such, we would suggest betting on the LCS and LEC matchups, as they yield the most even and averaged stats across the board.

 

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